Hi Mark, My emails here are based on my experience in the market where I reside and operate.

in 5 years, more companies would have shut down their operations or reduced their coverage due to operational costs vs client base. I have witnessed this here too whereby a Pan-African company that rebranded the name, has recently closed its office, and the operations in the state here, and if they still have clients, i assume it will be through a third party. This was due to a serious decline in their clients (Business clients moved to Low Orbit Sattelite) and the usual reliability of fiber between Lagos and the North. 

There is a gap between what the solution is designed for and what people will actually use it for. in the absence of any regulations "which takes years", and strict enforcement of Compliance Terms from the Provider, things go off road.

This is the new norm, not an exception, and will remain the new norm until it is properly regulated and compliance enforced.





On Sat, Jun 8, 2024 at 9:05 AM Mark Tinka via zanog-discuss <zanog-discuss@lists.nog.net.za> wrote:


On 6/7/24 09:16, Amin Dayekh via zanog-discuss wrote:

> I think the Constellation of LOS gives it the upper hand here with the
> number of Satellites orbiting, yes the services might be degraded at
> "lower speeds" but not similar to what we experience when there is
> major fiber cut. Last Month it survived a solar storm.

Remember that Starlink satellites have a 5-year lifespan before they
fall out of the sky and need to get replaced. This is assuming the
business model still works at that point in time.

Submarine cables are built to last 25 years, and have an average annual
failure rate of 1 - 2 incidents. I'd take those odds.

Also, don't forget that building, launching, commissioning and operating
satellites is not necessarily any cheaper than building a submarine
network by the time you have built out a constellation.


> I have seen some Starlink Speeds here around 10 and 20 Mbps. People
> find it hard sometimes to admit that you were honest in your opinion,
> and they they did the wrong decision but at the end, it is a
> fast-selling sexy packaging product that really might affect, with its
> similar competitors, the internet worldwide, the governance, data
> privacy, and much more.

Again, the exception does not make the rule.

Mark.
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