I agree with you and i never implied that the satellite can carry (as it is now) the capacity of the fiber. Future might unfold new technologies to the contrary. In the 90’s the speeds were in kbps and now i am preparing for Gigabit connectivity for residences.
On the other-hand, hypothetically, if the 1:1 solutions are provided to the end market, there is no need for a huge and very costly infrastructure under the sea.
I have seen a great decline in demand for fiber and broadband connectivity from local Telcos who have hugely invested over decades for resilient networks in many areas where the satellite services deployed, some ISPs are about to go bankrupt due to low client base and high operational costs, and of-course stability. In the Market where I am operating, many large scale organization, universities, to sme’s and residences have disconnected from isp’s and connected to Low Orbit Satellites, despite the Pros and Cons and any logical or Technical explanations that we might Provide, key point in the Market here is Price and Stability. A fiber cut in Lagos will impact my Network in Abuja or Portharcort!
In countries where Public services are degraded such as Power Supply, roads, and etc… operational costs (despite economical hardships, Forex policies and tax) would impose a major increase on final costs of the services.
In the Northern Part of Nigeria for instance 1 STM is priced at 1,290,000Naira per Month, 1USD=1490 today. Satellite is priced at 38000 Naira and Provides speeds up to 180MbPS. Many sme’s are who are neighbors are becoming wisps, they buy a single sat and subscribe to a residential package then share it among themselves.
The 65000 clients reported by the same entity to be their clients (if i recall the figure well) have been lost from Various Wisps, ISPs and Telcos. Despite the fact that the service is unstable on weather conditions, the low Latency plays a major role in this competition. National Long-hauls are costly and overly priced, Latency to CNN can be 110 to 90. More people will disconnect from the conventional ISP and connect to the Satellite, for many reasons, call it fantasy of new Products , affordability etc. more ISPs will shutdown, the capacity utilized by end users will drop and eventually, Telcos will get to R&D for new solutions other than 5G that proved failure on stability here, and with time and further development of Low Orbit technologies, building more ground-stations etc, the Submarine cables will become a secondary infrastructure to connect with. I might be wrong.
If things continue this way, we won’t be far from a centralized internet over few key major players globally who can afford space low orbit Satellites.
I tend to think of it (sometimes) as a game of thrones, publicly and government funded projects vs privately held entities.
Time will tell.
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On 6/6/24 23:39, Amin Dayekh via zanog-discuss wrote:
> IMHO the root cause of such outages should be inspected as we deserve
> to stay connected, we as ISP’s and our clients continue to suffer from
> such outages while it comes to the benefit of the Satellite Services.
Fibre carries significant orders of magnitude more capacity than
satellite ever will per unit time. Subsea cable failures are not
necessarily a benefit to satellite providers. They simply do not have
the capacity to be a 1:1 replacement. It is like comparing cows and
humans, even though we are both mammals.
It is important to understand that the Internet (and all the
infrastructure that goes along with it) is largely privately held and
decentralized.
I hear you about making demands for more central protection, but are you
sure you want what could potentially come with it in the form of more
central control also?
As the judge (Fred Gwynne) in the Joe Pesci and Marisa Tomei 1992 movie
"My Cousin Vinny" so eloquently said:
"Win some, lose some"
https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/f89c5b33-1e86-4bd9-830a-e7e28bd57ed4
Mark.
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